Swanson Presents at the Nordic Demography Symposium
Posted: 6/12/2025 ()
On June 12th, CSDE External Affiliate David Swanson (UC Riverside) presented “A new approach to probabilistic population forecasting with an application to Estonia” at the Nordic Demographic Symposium. Based on work with Jeff Tayman, this presentation applies measures of uncertainty to existing population forecasts using Estonia as a case study. The measures of forecast uncertainty are relatively easy to calculate and meet several important criteria used by demographers who routinely generate population forecasts. This paper applies the uncertainty measures to a population forecast based on the Cohort-Component Method, which links the probabilistic world forecast uncertainty to demographic theory, an important consideration in developing accurate forecasts. Read the full abstract here.
Swanson extends his thanks to his colleagues at the Estonian Institute for Population Research who kindly provided comments and suggestions when he presented an earlier version of the paper to them the week preceding the Nordic Demographic Symposium.